"Attack of the Drones: Drone Possession and Extrastate Conflict” (with Eric Stein):
What are the effects of armed drones on international conflict with rebels? We argue that unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) can worsen information problems and reduce combat costs,which can exacerbate the credibility commitment problem. Due to these problems, governments increase attacks against foreign rebel groups. We test this by measuring the effect of drones possession on extrastate conflicts from 2000 to 2019. Using standard directed dyads and also leveraging a causal inference method, the paper finds that acquiring drones alone increases conflict. But, surprisingly, we do not find evidence for a credible commitment problem. This has important implications and suggests that emerging military technology may worsen international conflict between governments and foreign rebels.
"World Police: How International Order Can Increase Extrastate War" (linked)
Why do states fight foreign wars against rebel groups, known as extrastate wars? This is especially puzzling since these wars are costly and even countries that are not major military powers sometimes fight them. This chapter argues that when rebel groups are revisionist, meaning they oppose the international order, states fight to stop them. More specifically, when revisionist rebels are more likely to take power as a revisionist state, status quo states fight wars to prevent this from happening. I use noncolonial extrastate wars from 1949 to 2010 as well as an synthetic difference-in-differences analysis to demonstrate this process. I find that as revisionist rebels are more likely to take state power, it increases war. The results were substantive, suggesting that states are willing to fight costly wars to protect their international order.
My dissertation, Distracted by Revisionists: The Causes and Consequences of Extrastate War explores an overlooked form of conflict: wars between governments and rebel groups outside the state's territory, known as extrastate wars. While there has been immense research on interstate war (governments fighting each other) and civil war (governments fighting rebels within their territory) very little attention has been paid to extrastate wars, despite how destructive and important they are. The project explores what causes extrastate wars (as well as lower level extrastate conflicts), and how they affect interstate war. I find that when rebels threaten the international system and are likely to take state power, it increases extrastate war. I also find that military drones increase extrastate conflicts and that, contrary to expectations, extrastate wars increase interstate wars. Each chapter also uses a causal identification strategy to help improve causal inference.